A number of brokerages have increased their stock-price targets for Wynn Resorts Ltd after analysts visited the under-construction Wynn Al Marjan Island casino resort in the United Arab Emirates, according to a report by GGRAsia. The analyst and investor tour took place on 4 December and included a discussion of the UAE market and a site tour.
Wynn Resorts’ shares closed at US$127.13 in Monday trading on the Nasdaq. Several firms raised targets for the stock to between $130 and $150. Institutions listed included JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Macquarie and BofA Securities. The changes were attributed to political support for the project, a luxury product focus, and improved infrastructure in Ras Al Khaimah.
During the same week, Wynn Resorts restated the project’s $5.1 billion budget and the planned opening in the first quarter of 2027. The company said it had spent or “fully bought out” $3.4 billion, representing 66.7 percent of the total budget.
The property is being developed on a 60-hectare artificial island in Ras Al Khaimah, around 50 minutes by road from Dubai International Airport. Wynn Resorts holds a 40 percent equity stake, alongside partners Marjan LLC and RAK Hospitality Holding LLC. The group has an exclusive, renewable 15-year casino licence for Ras Al Khaimah. Wynn stated there would be only “one land-based licence” for each emirate.
An investor presentation released at the time of the market tour said the integrated resort could generate gross gaming revenue of between $1 billion and $1.66 billion annually. The base case is forecast at $1.33 billion. Net property revenue after incentives and non-gaming income would be between $1.38 billion and $1.88 billion.
Adjusted property EBITDA is projected to reach between $390 million and $570 million annually after management fees of between $110 million and $230 million. Project return on investment was forecast between 9.8 percent and 15.7 percent, while Wynn’s return on equity ranged from 16.7 percent up to 34.3 percent.
Visitor performance modelling estimated total visitation days at 3.5 days, which the company observed was 17 percent longer than the average length of stay seen in Las Vegas. Wynn said that in a scenario where the UAE had three integrated resorts, it forecast a 0.04 percent penetration rate into the 2.4 billion people located within a four-hour flight. Annual trips by those guests were estimated at 2.8 to 3.2, higher than “both Macau (1.5 to 2.5) and the Las Vegas Strip (1.5 to 2.0)”.
Average length of stay was stated as 1.2 days, which is in line with Macau but below Las Vegas, although the company put the total visitation days to Ras Al Khaimah at 3.5 days.
Wynn told investors that topping out was imminent and the tower structure complete. The low-rise concrete and steel structures were 97 percent complete and 70 percent of tower facade glazing installed. Hotel room fit-outs were under way, with 100 percent of the structure for guest accommodation completed.
The project will include 1,530 rooms and suites, 22 restaurants and lounges, a theatre, nightclub, a five-star spa, and a casino with 275 tables and more than 2,000 gaming machines. The gaming floor will measure 225,000 square feet, or 20,903 square metres, equal to 4 percent of the gross floor area.
The company said demand for accommodation in Ras Al Khaimah will continue to exceed supply even as hotel room numbers more than double by 2030. A study by Colliers International and Marjan showed hotel keys rising from around 7,472 to 16,229, while demand is estimated at 22,498, leaving a room deficit of 6,269. In 2027, when Wynn Al Marjan Island opens, demand is forecast to exceed supply by 8,434 keys.
Annual visitation to Ras Al Khaimah is expected to grow from 1.3 million in 2024 to 5.3 million in 2030, with overnight guests rising from 4.5 million to 9.6 million. Infrastructure projects include a $200 million expansion of the E111 highway, reducing travel time between Dubai and Ras Al Khaimah by 45 percent, and an airport terminal expansion that will increase passenger capacity to 3 million by 2028. Electric air taxi services between Dubai and Wynn Al Marjan Island are scheduled for early 2027, described as the UAE’s first “vertical take-off and landing” air taxi ecosystem, which Wynn said will cut travel time to 15 minutes.
Earlier, Wynn Resorts confirmed that it had spent or “fully bought out” $3.4 billion of the total budget for the project. The company said the scheme could produce annual GGR in the range of $1.00 billion to $1.66 billion, with a base case of $1.33 billion. Financial modelling put annual net revenue at just under $1.63 billion and adjusted property EBITDA of at least $465 million.
The EBITDA estimate assumes Wynn Resorts would be paid US$160 million in management and licence fees, as well as a US$100 million annual share of free cash flow. The firm said, “Wynn properties have historically ramped in about three years, typically with a significant jump from the first to second year, as we fine tune operations and marketing.”
A representative of local investors said the venture could draw 5.1 million visitors annually to Ras Al Khaimah by 2030, rising from 1.3 million in 2024. Overnight guests could reach 9.6 million by 2030, compared with 4.5 million last year, according to a presentation by Alison Grinnell, chief operating officer of Marjan Group and chief executive of Marjan Hospitality. The number of hotel rooms in Ras Al Khaimah is expected to more than double to 16,229 over the same period.
Wynn Resorts anticipates two other casino projects may be licensed in the UAE, which together could generate between US$3 billion and US$5 billion in GGR annually.
In late November, the company said the 305 metre tower at Wynn Al Marjan Island “is nearing its full height, with topping-out expected in late November 2025, ahead of the planned spring 2027 opening”. The project cost, including land, capitalised interest and fees, remains US$5.1 billion.
“The tower has now reached the 70th floor, and work on the roof deck is underway,” the promoter said. Progress on the exterior showed 19,206 of 26,247 facade panels installed, representing 73 percent completion. Low-rise concrete and steel structures were “now 97 percent complete”.
Structural work was said to be complete for 1,526 of the 1,530 rooms, or 99.7 percent. Interior fit-out was underway in 1,504 rooms, “approximately 98 percent of the total”, alongside mechanical, electrical and finishing activities. Planned dining includes a French American steakhouse by Alain Ducasse and Delilah, a supper club brand from Wynn Las Vegas.
Additional land bank capacity exists on Al Marjan Island for future development. Wynn stated that the venture has an agreement to develop a second casino resort on another plot. In November, the firm announced the Janu Al Marjan Island project by Aman Group as “the first development on the Marjan land bank”.
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